Will The U.S. Changing Demographics Affect Fashion?
Milan Fashion Week Fall 2004
DALLAS, Dec 24, 2003/ FW/ --- Christmas eve, and we are only 18 days away from the kick off of the Milan Menswear Show Fall 2004 season.
As we welcome the New Year, and the start of the fall fashion season, the U.S. is also on the eve of changing demographics.
When January 1, 2004 rolls around, the youngest of the Baby Boomers will begin marking their 40th birthdays and the official entrance to "middle age."
The baby boomers since they came of age have historically been one of the biggest factors in the U.S. economy.
"Boomers have been the most marketed-to generation in American history," said Don Montuori, Acquisitions Editor for Packaged Facts in a report dated Oct 28, 2002
As a group, the 76 million baby boomers hold the biggest amount of disposable income, and on the verge of getting more.
According to a report by the Lincoln Financial Group, the U.S. is on the verge of the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of America.
The economic boom of the 1990s created an unprecedented amount of personal wealth in America -- currently estimated at more than $33 trillion.
At the same time, today's retirees constitute one of the wealthiest segments of the U.S. population with more personal wealth than any previous generation.
Economists believe that bequests of this wealth will significantly boost the resources of the 76 million Baby Boomers.
Is the U.S. getting richer? Or, are Americans getting richer?
According to a Conference Board report dated May 23, 2002, “the sharp expected rise in the highest income households would have a profound effect on income distribution.”
In 1994, 70% of households had incomes under $50,000 and 30% had $50,000 and above. By 2010 the share of households with incomes under $50,000 will have dropped to 53%, while the share with incomes above $50,000 will approach 47%.
In other words, by 2010 the U.S. consumer market will be almost split, with half of all households having incomes below $50,000 and half above.
Definitely, this is great news for luxury retailers when it comes to long-term projections. For short term, again, the Conference Board predicted, that “2004 will be the best year economically for the U.S. in two decades” with a projected real GDP growth hitting 5.7% next year.
It’s really great news all around for the U.S. economy. Though the past two years had been very bleak, the economists are finally in agreement that we the U.S. is on an economic rebound.
“Boring! I’m here to see fashion, not economic reports,” that’s probably what you are saying by now. But think for a second. Fashion is big business, and like any business, decisions are made based on economic projects.
So, what does the upcoming Milan Menswear show hold for us in relation to these market reports?
Expect “grown up” looks catering to the baby boomers hitting 40. Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise might have hit the big 4-0, but these Hollywood hunks do not show any signs of slowing down in their sex appeal.
There will be a lot of youth-oriented designs for the 20-something generation for the children of the “older baby boomers.” Flushed with cash, the older baby boomers tend to dote on their children.
“But that’s two extremes of the spectrum!” Is probably what you’re saying?
Actually, it makes sense. Fashion houses need to cater to their existing market and develop a new one. The baby boomers are getting older, and their children are growing up. A sign of a good company is making sure that the “love for their product” is handed down from current generation to the next.
Look at Coca Cola, one of the biggest companies in the U.S. It has adapted with the changing times and caters to the whole spectrum of America from regular Coke to Diet Coke, even with different flavor Vanilla Coke. And, don’t forget Dasani bottled water and Minute Maid fruit juices.
Translating this in terms of fashion, expect Giorgio Armani to cater to both Mel Gibson and Jeremy Sumpter.
Mel Gibson was a very young actor during his “Mad Max” fame, and we saw him become a father Heath Ledger in “The Patriot.”
Jeremy Sumpter on the other hand is on the verge of becoming the latest Hollywood hunk with Peter Pan. For all we know, he might be around the same age when Mel Gibson became a screen heartthrob.
So, is it really at the other end of spectrum? Not really. It’s the same market, different time frame.
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