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Concerns Abound on the Cusp of a New Year
By: Timothy Hagy

PARIS, Jan 12, 2003 /FW/ -- Winter's cold grip has frozen Paris these first days of the New Year. The French Capital has recently resembled Moscow-on-the-Seine, with record-shattering temperatures becoming a daily routine.

At the airport, snow, ice and cold had passengers boiling when they were blocked for hours on the ramp waiting for ground staff to thaw them out. Given the comedy of mishaps that nearly shut down international transportation, the government has fretted itself into launching an 'investigation': the focus ‹ manifold ineptitude.

Anyone familiar with French administration doesn't seriously believe a report will be seen anytime soon, certainly not before the next round of snowfall predicted this weekend, but more likely by the time there is a deep freezeŠ you know where.

In town, the cold has Leftists hot, following the scandalous deaths of the four homeless people: the last person was found on Avenue Foch in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods of the city. The Paris police have been authorized to forcibly remove vagrants either to shelters, or to prison if necessary, but at any cost, they are now instructed to get them off the streets.

So the brightness that often denotes this fledgling season has been frosted over by a plethora of anxieties.

Bernard Arnault, millionaire owner of the LVMH group, must surely be worried, as weaker than expected holiday sales, along with an eroding dollar sent share prices at his conglomerate tumbling by 3.8%.

François Pinault, owner of the PPR Group, must be even more worried. With Gucci profits falling faster than the sleet, and with weak sales potential in the US Market clouding the imminent horizon, the second largest luxury conglomerate sold off its subsidiary Kartel.

At Hermès, stockholders are skating on the same thin ice, with share prices falling on three consecutive days to end down by 3.25% on the first full business week of the New Year.

And this phenomenon is not exclusive to this side of the Atlantic.

On Friday, when the Labor Department verified a loss of over 100,000 American jobs in December, Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, trotted rapidly out to the podium to express the President's "concern", even as the President was on the telephone with Chinese President Jiang Zemin expressing his "concern" about North Korea's increasingly concerning statements.

W. then flew to Virginia (safe territory for a sitting duck Republican) to urge Congress to pass his tax cut proposals, a package aimed at dramatically reducing the obligations of the wealthiest of Americans, while contributing to the mounting national debt. Republicans on Capitol Hill were apparently not snowed by that line, with such strange bedfellows as Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Lincoln Chafee pointing out that major rewriting of the legislation is not only likely, but obligatory.

Yet the person most "concerned" of all is probably Karl Rove, who is faced not only with the prospect of producing an unconvincing spectacle, that of W. attempting to feel "concern" for the masses, but with polls that suggest weakening popular support for any war on anything.

Across town, Uncle Dick and Rummy must be crying into their hot toddies over obstacles in their own carefully plotted slope. Turkey has wobbled on allowing the US use of its military bases for any invasion of Iraq, while the UN Inspectors pre-report does not look auspicious. If the first finding is any indication of the final finding, due out on January 27, no culpability will be found on Iraq's part.

With the window of opportunity closing fast for future war games, the Vice has returned to his other favorite pastime: reviewing his options for stockholder tax cuts.

In Milan on Sunday, the first of the Fall / Winter 2003 shows begin for men. With the forecast for February still uncertain, it is hard to imagine what the market will look like come next fall. Just as the fashion season is cranking up, sales figures are stalling, sending shivers throughout the luxury apparel sector.

With all the moaning and groaning going on between CEOs, marketing strategists and artistic directors, there might soon be demand for group therapy on Avenue Montaigne.

At least one person is not worried however: a young boy, who does booming business playing his electric keyboard for tourists on the Charles de Gaulle Airport commuter trains every morning. The Euros flow into his tiny hands with each passing refrain of "what a wonderful time for a sleigh ride together with you."

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