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Sales Forecast: Deloitte Research Findings Suggest A Difficult Retail Environment This Fall
By: Mari Davis

Deloitte Research DALLAS, Jul 13, 2006/ FW/ --- High energy costs is finally catching up with the consumers. According to the Deloitte Research Leading Index of Consumer Spending that was released today, the index is down at 3.15%, down from an upwardly revised gain of 3.3% last month.

The index, comprising four components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices show weakness in all areas.

According to Deloitte, the growth in personal tax burden is accelerating. Pegged at 12.45%, the current tax burden is now equal to the average tax burden for all of the 1990s.

Though this might sound grim, the reason for its increased is actually good. Personal income has risen, which in turn pushed more households into higher tax brackets and the alternative minimum tax.

It’s good news though for the federal government whose tax receipts continue to grow strongly. The higher tax burden is raising Federal tax revenues and making it easier for state and local governments to balance their budgets.

But, it has the reverse effect on households where real hourly wages were down slightly in the most recent months due to higher energy prices. In short, the salary increases received by consumer had been eaten up at the gas pumps!

The job market continues to be soft, with the initial unemployment claims moving up again in recent weeks after nearly a year of steady decline. Softness in the labor market has been particularly pronounced in retail despite solid sales growth, according to Deloitte Research. The weakness in the labor market was the primary reason for the decline in this month's index.

With the rise of the federal interest rate, the housing market passed its peak and now on the other side of the bell curve. Again, according to Deloitte Research, although housing turned in a better performance in the most recent months, the supply of new unsold houses is just under five months, close to highest inventory levels in more than a decade.

Real home prices fell again in the most recent month and are down slightly from a year ago. A build up in unsold home inventory for both new and existing homes points to softness in home prices for the foreseeable future.

"We continue to face the triple-threat of high energy prices, a soft housing market and relatively weak job growth," says Carl Steidtmann, chief economist of Deloitte Research and author of the monthly index.

"Last year's record hurricane season and resulting weak retail sales will likely make this summer's sales results look comparatively strong; this could make for a relatively solid back-to-school season. The forecast for this year's hurricane season is a bit less stormy than last year, but still quite active, which could spell trouble for fall retail sales," he added.

For more information about Deloitte Research, please log on: www.deloitte.com

 

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