The prospect of a costly war with Iraq only adds to investor and consumer uncertainty. However, as the all-important holiday shopping season nears, there is a bright spot.

According to eMarketer's just released The US Online Holiday Shopping Report, during the 2002 holiday season the Internet sales channel will continue to grow, capturing new consumers and a larger slice of the total retail pie.

Online sales, excluding travel, will grow to $12.97 billion, an increase of 16% over fourth quarter 2001 and four times the rate by which overall retail sales are expected to grow from Q4 2001 to Q4 2002.

US Q4 Online Retail Sales, 1999-2002 (in millions and % growth vs. prior year)

"Online holiday spending is the bright spot in an otherwise dark picture," says Dr. Nevin Cohen, Senior Analyst at eMarketer. "When overall retail sales are expected to grow only three or four percent over last year's holiday shopping numbers, maintaining double-digit growth is great news."

This increase is due to both changing behavior and changing demographics. In addition to a growing number of online buyers, with 62 million projected to make a purchase in Q4, more consumers are making a larger portion of their purchases online.

Also, more early Internet adopters - particularly young adults - now have the credit cards and the income required to buy online. Finally, more late adopters, such as working-class adults and seniors, will make their first purchase online this holiday season.

In total, 3 million people will make their first online purchase this quarter.

"To achieve these numbers online retailers are going to have to move faster than ever," says Dr. Cohen. "This year, Thanksgiving falls later than usual, on November 28^th, and the online shopping season ends around December 20^th, a few days earlier than the off-line season because of the need to ship the merchandise in time for Christmas delivery.

The shorter number of days makes it incumbent upon Internet retailers to drive sales through aggressive marketing, such as online promotions prior to Thanksgiving, and improved customer service."

The US Online Holiday Shopping Report, 108 pages in length with 107 charts and graphs, containing both online and offline retail figures, is the most complete and up-to-date look at the holiday market available.

Aggregating the latest statistics and findings from the leading researchers and government sources, including Gartner G2, comScore, Jupiter and dozens of others, the report highlights and explains the issues driving this important area of the Internet economy - an area that is having an increasing impact on the overall US economy.